Take the eight technologies everyone files under ‘the future’ and sort them into what is real, what is a genuine frontier, and what is mostly a slogan.
Real — here now
Explainable AI · AI-augmented robotics · cognitive AI assistants
Frontier — real but years off
Artificial general intelligence · neuromorphic (brain-inspired) chips · Quantum AI on 6G
Mostly marketing
The ‘autonomous supply chain’ · ‘predictive ethics’
Carry this
The sorting is the skill. Real: explainable AI, AI-augmented robotics, cognitive assistants. Frontier: AGI, neuromorphic chips, quantum AI/6G. Marketing: autonomous supply chain, predictive ethics.
Why the last two are slogans
The rest of the story
Naming the hype honestly
Label
What it really is
Autonomous supply chain
A shiny name on optimisation we have done for years — operations research with a new coat of paint.
Predictive ethics
The idea that software can pre-judge right from wrong before anything happens. It is not really a field at all.
Framework hole — the ‘infrastructure’ claim
There is a bold claim that AI is becoming infrastructure — the ground everything is built on. Hold it at arm’s length: these are early days, the models shift month to month, and building foundations on something this fluid is its own risk. Notice the example that genuinely dazzles — AlphaFold — was a small specialist model, not a giant chatbot. A frontier, not yet a foundation.
The lesson
The other side
What to trust today, what to watch
The sorting is not pedantry. It tells you where to spend attention and money now (the real three), where to keep half an eye (the frontier three), and where to discount the pitch (the two slogans).
The other side
‘It’s the future’ is not a category. Ask of any emerging tech: is it working today, a genuine frontier, or a label on something old?
Quick recall — without looking back
Test yourself on this case
Question 1 of 3
Sort the eight technologies into the three buckets.
Because pre-judging right from wrong before anything happens is not really a field; the ‘autonomous supply chain’ is likewise optimisation we have done for years, renamed.
Question 3 of 3
What is the honest response to ‘AI is infrastructure’?
Treat it as a frontier, not a foundation — the models shift monthly, and the example that dazzles (AlphaFold) was a small specialist model, not a giant chatbot.